The Liberals, headed for an easy election win a week ago, have plummeted into minority-government territory in popular support as most Canadians want to hear the results of an inquiry into the sponsorship scandal before they vote, according to a poll.
The survey, done by Ipsos-Reid for The Globe and Mail and CTV, could throw cold water on plans for a spring ballot.
It also shows that more Canadians blame former prime minister Jean Chrétien (29 per cent) for the scandal than the present prime minister, Paul Martin (22 per cent). In his first public comments on the week-old controversy yesterday, Mr. Chrétien refused to say whether he would appear before a newly called public inquiry, dismissing reporters' questions by stating that he is out of government.
“I don't think any more,” Mr. Chrétien said when asked about his thoughts on the scandal.
In the poll, 90 per cent said they would expect Mr. Chrétien to appear before the inquiry to “explain what he knows.” Mr. Martin has already offered to testify.
The new survey suggests that the Liberals' 11-year grip on power is in danger despite Mr. Martin's week-long public-relations push to contain the damage. The Liberals have fallen to 35 per cent in popular support, from 39 per cent last week and 48 per cent only four weeks ago.
The Conservative Party has risen to 27 per cent, up from 19 per cent four weeks ago, and the New Democrats are relatively stable at 17 per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois has surged to 45 per cent, compared to 31 per cent for the Liberals.
Mr. Martin gave no sign of delaying the vote as he continued his media-heavy strategy to win popular support for his plan to solve the scandal. But Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said a spring election would be risky.
“When you get down in the territory of 35 per cent, you don't win majorities. . . . I don't think there is anybody now who would be seriously advising [Mr. Martin] to go to the polls on this basis, unless he just wants to completely roll the dice,” Mr. Bricker said .
Last week's Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted from Tuesday, the day the auditor's report was released, through Thursday. The new poll of 1,055 Canadians was conducted from Wednesday through Sunday. On any given question, it has a 95-per-cent statistical likelihood of accuracy within a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, upward or downward. The poll also asked 737 people questions about their attitudes on the scandal. It is accurate to within 3.6 percentage points.
Mr. Martin is scrambling to save his political future after a scathing report by the Auditor-General blasted the Liberal government for funnelling $100-million to a handful of advertising firms that provided little or no value to Canadians. In the face of allegations of patronage and fraud, Mr. Martin was forced to insist yesterday that “the Liberal Party is not corrupt.”
Mr. Martin has adopted a high-risk strategy, making a clean break with Mr. Chrétien's government and blaming political operatives who he vowed would be identified by a public inquiry.
One of the key planks in Mr. Martin's strategy is to insist that he was not aware of wrongdoing in the sponsorship scheme before the matter became public in the spring of 2002.
Two-thirds of respondents, however, said Mr. Martin had to know “something” or “a lot” about the scandal, including who was responsible for the mismanagement of public funds.
Sixty-five per cent indicated they want to find out “what happened in the sponsorship program” before an election is called, compared to 32 per cent who preferred an early vote.
Mr. Bricker said the message from Canadians is that if Mr. Martin calls an election for early May, as has been expected, it will look as though the Liberals “are trying to hide something.”
The public accounts committee of the House has started an investigation into the misuse of funds, and Mr. Martin has ordered a public inquiry to be headed by a judge. Both investigations will take months to reach any definitive conclusion.
Mr. Martin acknowledged the need for Canadians to know more about what happened to the public funds, but added that he also needs a new mandate to enact his promises for other areas of government.
“There is no doubt Canadians are entitled certainly to more information than we currently have. And we are going to provide them [with more]. But there is a balance that has to be drawn here," Mr. Martin said.
“Canadians are entitled to say that a new government with a new agenda ought to seek a mandate. And a new Prime Minister ought to seek a mandate.”
It will be up to Mr. Martin to decide on the election date, but Public Works Minister Stephen Owen said that Canadians will have to start getting a sense of what happened before the next election.
“I'm sure [Mr. Martin] will take into very deep consideration the need of the public to know that these issues are being delved into as stringently as possible,” Mr. Owen said.
Mr. Martin toured Quebec yesterday in an attempt to demonstrate that the problem is not specific to the province, recalling corruption charges against the Grant Devine government in the 1980s in Saskatchewan.
Mr. Martin was responding to questions about Liberal MP Joe Comuzzi, the new minister of state for economic development in Northern Ontario, who has been quoted as saying the sponsorship scandal “is a Quebec issue and I guess that's how they do politics there.”
“That's totally unacceptable,” Mr. Martin said of his minister's remarks. “Quebec politics are very healthy.”
Opposition politicians were quick to capitalize on the situation yesterday.
NDP leader Jack Layton said he's willing to form a minority government with the Liberals if the sponsorship scandal ends up denying the ruling party a majority of parliamentary seats in a spring election.
“If the poll lines keep going the way they are going — us up . . . and the Liberals down — then the probability of a minority government increases,” he said.
But Mr. Layton says a non-negotiable precondition of any coalition with the Liberals will be holding a national referendum on switching to a new method of electing MPs to Parliament.
With reports from Rhéal Séguin, Steven Chase and Tu Thanh Ha
Advertisement
Advertisement 
